Daniel Kaufman, founder and CEO of Kaufman & Company, the family office and permanent capital holding company, said the wave of commercial real estate retrades following the Federal Reserve's September rate increase is separating capital that can close from capital that cannot, and that family offices investing their own money should be ready to step into that gap.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 16, and minutes released Oct. 7 showed most officials believe another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Since then, The Wall Street Journal and trade outlets including CRE Daily and Citybiz have reported buyers pressing to renegotiate deals signed earlier in 2026, with some threatening to walk away. Trepp data cited in that coverage show 11.42% of CMBS loans were with special servicers in August, the highest share since February 2013.
"A retrade is a buyer telling a seller the deal was really a bet on the rate," Kaufman said. "When the rate moves, the price moves, and everyone downstream waits. The sellers, contractors and towns counting on those projects carry that uncertainty. We invest our own capital, so our underwriting has to work without assuming the next Fed decision goes our way."
Kaufman said the moment favors long-term owners over buyers whose returns depend on a narrow financing window, particularly in housing, where a stalled closing can push back construction and leave homes unbuilt.
"This is when family office capital should earn its keep," Kaufman said. "We are not looking to win by grinding down a seller who negotiated in good faith. We want to be the partner people can count on at the closing table, because on a housing deal a delay is not a line item; it is fewer homes for the people who need them."
The implications extend beyond individual transactions. As retrades ripple through commercial real estate, sellers, builders and municipalities that budget around expected project timelines face added uncertainty when closings slip. For the Long Beach area and the broader Southern California market, where housing production is a persistent concern, the difference between a deal that closes and one that stalls can translate directly into construction schedules and the number of homes delivered.
Kaufman & Company invests only its own capital and does not raise outside funds. Its operating companies span housing development, design and construction, real estate consulting and venture investment, and this month the company announced BUILD 2030, a national initiative coordinating its housing, real estate and AI infrastructure work. The platform behind thekaufmanco.com represents more than $2 billion in project value and more than 10,000 housing units across more than 25 years of building, lending and investing.
For readers tracking regional development, the takeaway is that financing certainty is becoming a competitive advantage. Developers and builders who depend on rate-sensitive capital may face longer negotiations, while permanent capital holders positioned to close on stated terms could find more opportunities as deals are repriced. Kaufman's argument is that underwriting discipline, rather than a wager on the next rate move, is what keeps projects moving from contract to construction.
